城市负债研究的国内外进展与展望

Progress and Prospects of City Indebtedness

从城市负债内涵、形成机理、影响效应、负债水平的衡量与风险预警以及负债监控政策与手段等方面对相关研究进行了文献梳理和分析总结,并展望了进一步研究的方向和重点。结果表明:城市负债研究在国内外均取得了不少成果,但国内目前的研究存在以中国实践去验证国外理论和经验的情况,且研究视角较为单一,缺乏多学科、广领域、立体层次的研究。因此,未来应在基本内涵上力求综合、完整、全面,关注历史经验和最新数据的监测融合,通过多种分析方法对多层次尺度的数据进行更加细化深入和全面的分析,实现包括经济、社会、地理、人文等多权重要素在内的差异化格局和多要素之间耦合关系的分析。

In this paper, a relatively comprehensive literature review was stated, including the basic meaning and classification of city indebtedness, the formation mechanism of city debt, the influence on urban development, the relevant measuring index system and early-warning models, and the regulatory measures, on the basis of which the future focuses and prospects were proposed. The results showed that great progress has been made on the influence, the measurements, the early-warning monitoring system, and the regulatory policies and approaches of city indebtedness, especially, the research on the policies, methods and technologies of debt risk assessment and early-warning monitoring in advanced countries can be used as references for Chinese domestic debt management. At the same time, under the background of advanced market economy and stable urbanization, relevant studies in advanced countries have been gradually penetrating and integrating with other disciplines, such as geography, sociology, resources and environment and ecology, besides their great success which has been achieved already .in the economic field. However, Chinese domestic research is still at the primary stage, and focuses mainly on the field of economics, which lacks of creative studies from a multi-disciplinary and multi-level dimensional perspective that is integrated with geography, sociology, resources and environment, ecology, and even systematics research. At the same time, there were shortcomings and deficiencies in the definition and concept of city indebtedness, the formation mechanism and the accumulative effect of city indebtedness, the data selection, and the statistical scope and scale. Hence, in the future, it is suggested that a complete and comprehensive definition and contents including local government, enterprises and the public should be clarified by considering the spatial and temporal changes of urban socio-economy, resources and environment, and urban morphology, and the integration of historical data and latest statistics at large and small scale levels should be studied. Meanwhile, through profound and careful analyses with various methods at different scales, the differentiated spatial pattern of city indebtedness and the coercing relationship between urban economy, society, geography, culture and indebtedness are likely to be measured.