摘要
基于湖南省1950-2013年农业水灾资料,运用数理统计、移动平均法等方法,分析了农业水灾的演变特征。结果表明,近64年来以农业轻灾频率最高,重灾和特大水灾多发生在1982-2005年间,约4-5年一次。农业受灾率异常指数于1955-1963年、1965-1968年、1970-1979年、2004-2013年出现4个低谷值,分别为-0.773 6、-0.751 9、-0.817 2、-0.793 7;于1980-1984年、1987-1999年、2001-2004年出现3个高峰值,分别为0.845 0、2.150 4、2.316 5。农业成灾率异常指数于1950-1953年、1955-1987年、1988-1990年、1996-1998年、2000-2001年、2008-2013年出现6个低谷值,分别为-0.657 1、-0.747 8、-0.262 3、-0.600 9、-0.324 8、-0.327 6;于1953-1955年、1987-1989年、1990-1995年、1996-1998年、2001-2004年出现5个高峰值,分别为0.757 8、1.888 2、1.100 7、2.730 1、2.862 4。2005至2013年受灾率和成灾率两异常指数呈同步下降趋势。并运用最优气候均态模型预测结果显示,2018年和2023年可能发生农业重水灾,其余年份的受灾和成灾情况均为轻灾。
Based on the agricultural flood data (1950-2013) of Hunan province, evolution characters of the agricultural flood disaster are analyzed by the mathematical statistics analysis and moving average method. The results are: In the last 64 years, the light flood disaster has accounted for the most of the flood disaster, and heavy and extra heavy flood disasters happened most frequently during 1982-2005 which appeared about every 4-5 years. The abnormal index of the agricultural disaster-affected rate respectively equaled -0.773 6, -0.751 9, -0.817 2 and -0.793 7 during 1955-1963, 1965-1968, 1970-1979 and 2004-2013, which were the four lowest values. The three highest values of this rate were 0.845 0, 2.150 4 and 2.316 5 which appeared during 1980-1984, 1987-1999 and 2001-2004. The abnormal index of the agricultural disaster-destroyed rate respectively equaled -0.657 1, -0.747 8, -0.262 3, -0.600 9, -0.324 8 and -0.327 6 during 1950-1953, 1955-1987, 1988-1990, 1996-1998, 2000-2001 and 2008-2013, which were the six lowest values. The five highest values of this rate were 0.757 8, 1.888 2, 1.100 7, 2.730 1 and 2.862 4 which appeared during 1953-1955, 1987-1989, 1989-1997, 1997-2000, 2001-2004 and 2006-2008. Both the abnormal index of the agricultural disaster-affected rate and disaster-destroyed rate synchronously decreased in 2005-2013. The predict results shows that the agricultural heavy disaster will probably appear in 2018 and 2023 and the light disaster may appear in other years.
出处
《农业现代化研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2014年第6期793-799,共7页
Research of Agricultural Modernization
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(71303251)
关键词
农业水灾
受灾率异常指数
成灾率异常指数
变化趋势
湖南省
the agricultural flood disaster
the abnormal index of disaster-affected Rate
the abnormal index of disaster-destroyed rate
the change trend
Hunan Province