摘要
研究黄河源区封开河日期的预报模型,对于填补黄河源区凌情研究的空白,进一步了解气候变化对源区径流过程的影响十分重要。根据黄河源区的水文、气象资料,从热力因素、水力因素和河道条件等方面筛选了影响河流凌情演变的主要因子,选用多元线性回归法和人工神经网络法对封河日期和开河日期进行了预测,并对预测结果进行了对比分析,初步建立起具有一定精度的黄河源区河冰封开河预报模型。
The study on forecast model of freeze-up and break-up date is significant important to understand the ice-slush in the source region of Yellow River and the impacts of climate changes on runoff process of Yellow River source area. Based on the hydrological data and weather data of source region of Yellow River, the main factors which affecting river ice-slush evolution are selected from various factors of thermal, hydraulic and river channel conditions, and then the dates of freeze-up and break-up are forecasted by using multiple linear regression and artificial neural network methods. The forecast results are also compared. The ice forecast of freeze-up and break-up model is initially set up for the source region of Yellow River.
出处
《水力发电》
北大核心
2014年第12期12-15,共4页
Water Power
基金
全球变化研究国家重大科学研究计划项目(2010CB951103)
国家自然科学基金重点项目(40830639)
2011年度高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金项目(20110094110013)
国家重点实验室团队项目水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室专项经费资助(1069-50985512)
关键词
预报
封河日期
开河日期
黄河源区
多元线性回归法
人工神经网络法
forecast
date of freeze-up
date of break-up
source region of Yellow River
multiple linear regression method
artificial neural network method
