中国人口年龄结构变动对出生率的影响研究

Study the Effect of Population Age Structure Changes on the Crude Birth Rate in China

本文利用相关年份的《中国统计年鉴》和人口普查数据,根据粗出生率与总和生育率的关系与特征,构建了人口年龄结构系数及其对粗出生率变动影响的贡献率指标,分析了建国以来人口年龄结构变动对出生率的影响。研究发现:1949—1979年,人口年龄结构变动对出生率的影响很小;1980—1993年,人口年龄结构变动对出生率的影响迅速上升,年龄结构的贡献率增大;1994—2008年,人口年龄结构变动对出生率的影响趋于下降,人口惯性势能在减弱;2009—2011年,受80—90年代出生高峰的影响,人口年龄结构变动对出生率的影响再次凸显,年龄结构的贡献率迅速增大。从年龄别生育率逐年下降的特点,也可以证明近年推动我国人口增长的力量主要是由于年龄结构带来的惯性增长。

This paper take uses of China Statistical Yearbook and census data. According to the relationships and characteristics of the crude birth rate and total fertility rate, put up with the indicator of population age structure coefficient and its contribution share to the influence on the crude birth rate changes. And then analysis the impact of changes population age structure on the birth rate since the founding of new China. Research found： 1949-1979 ,population age structure changes impact to the birth rate was slightly ;1980 -1993 , population age structure changes impact to the birth rate quickly rose,contribution share increased much; 1994-2008 ,population age structure changes impact to the crude birth rate tends to declined, population inertia potential energy in weakened;2009-2011 ,for the 80-90 birth cohort peak, population age structure changes impact to the crude birth rate again highlights. The population age structure＇s contribution share increases quickly. From the characteristics of the age-specific fertility rate has been declining, also could prove that in recent years to promote our country＇s population increase power is mainly due to the inertial growth.