基于关机点状态的弹道导弹落点估计及误差分析

Estimation and Error Analysis of Ballistic Missile Fall Point Based on Shutoff Point State

反导系统中,如何准确快速地估计导弹落点为目标威胁估计提供了重要依据,也是提高拦截概率的关键步骤。根据弹道目标关机点状态估计信息,利用椭圆弹道理论进行落点估计研究,克服了现有方法的弊端,通过误差传播矩阵研究了关机点状态估计信息对落点估计的影响,利用误差估计模型对落点估计的误差进行了分析,对落点估计精度的改善具有一定的实际意义。

In the anti-missile system, how to estimate the missile fall point accurately and quickly not only provides important basis for target threat estimation, but also is the key step to improve the interception probability. According to the estimation information of shutoff point state of ballis- tic target, this paper performs the fall point estimation research by means of elliptic trajectory theo- ry, overcomes the shortage of present methods, studies the influence of estimation information of shutoff point state on fall point estimation through error propagation matrix, uses the error estima- tion model to analyze the error of fall point estimation, which is of definite actual meaning for the improvement of fall point estimation accuracy.