城市轨道交通客流增长滞后性与预测方法研究

Lagged Effect of Passenger Flow Growth and Forecasting Method in Shanghai Urban Mass Transit

城市轨道交通客流是确定城市轨道交通建设规模及投资决策的主要依据,然而客流增长速度并不与城市轨道交通建设同步。考虑到城市轨道交通客流增长的滞后性,利用上海城市轨道交通1996—2010年客流与建设数据,基于协整理论建立了向量自回归模型进行城市轨道交通客流预测。研究结果表明:城市轨道交通客流与城市轨道交通网络长度以及连接度存在协整关系;在城市轨道交通建设初期,客流增长对于网络长度具有显著滞后性,随着城市轨道交通系统的完善客流滞后性减弱;2011年上海城市轨道客流预测误差为9.3%。

Passenger flow of urban mass transit determines the construction scale and investment. However, the growth of passenger flow is out of sync with rail construc- tion. In view of the lagged effect of passenger flow growth, the annual data of Shanghai urban mass transit during 1996-2010 is used to establish the vector auto regression model on the basis of co-integration theory, so as to fore- cast the passenger flow. Research results indicate that the passenger flow has a co-integration relationship with the track mileage and network connection degree. At the early phase of urban mass transit construction, the lagged effect on track mile is significant, but it tends to become weaker with the development of urban mass transit, the prediction error of Shanghai urban mass transit passenger flow in 2011 is 9.3%.