填海造地道路软基沉降的不同数据序列GM(1,1)预测模型

The Different Data Sequence GM( 1,1) Prediction Model of Soft Road Foundation Settlement in Reclamation

为了研究不同样本数据序列GM(1,1)灰色模型在填海造地道路软基沉降预测中的实用性和有效性。结合工程实例,以软基沉降监测数据为依据,分别选取堆载预压恒载期的10组和20组实测地基沉降数据作为样本数据序列,建立了相应的GM(1,1)灰色预测模型,对软土地基固结沉降进行了预测,并将两种不同数据序列灰色模型预测结果与现场实测数据进行了对比分析。研究结果表明:GM(1,1)灰色模型所得预测曲线与实测曲线变化趋势基本一致,预测值与实测值吻合较好,实测曲线比预测曲线收敛较快,较多样本数据序列灰色模型所得预测精度更高。

In order to study the practicability and effectiveness of the grey models of different sample data sequence GM （1 ,1 ） in the road soft foundation settlement prediction for reclamation engineering ,the GM （1 ,1 ） grey model was estab-lished based on the soft foundation settlement monitoring data of an engineering project .In the test ,10 groups and 20 groups of measured settlement data during preloading constant period were selected as the sample data sequence ,accord-ing to which the corresponding GM （1 ,1 ） grey forecast model was established .The consolidation settlement of soft soil foundation was predicted with this model ,and the comparative analysis with the prediction results of two different data se-quence grey models and measured data of settlement monitoring was carried out .The results indicate that the changing trend of the predicted curve of GM （1 ,1 ） grey model is consistent with the measured curve ,the predicted values and the measured values are well accorded ,the measured curve convergence is faster than the predicted curve ,and more sample data sequence grey models lead to higher prediction accuracy .