城市居民初职离职风险差异研究——时代差异抑或体制差别

A Study of the Historical Differences in the Hazard Rate of Quitting Their First Job :Historical Difference or Institutional Obstacle

本文关注于个体初职离职风险率的时代差异问题。在中国市场转型的背景下,不同的历史时期内,初职离职风险的时代差异反映了中国由再分配经济向市场经济转型过程中社会分层结构与机制的变迁。本文利用2009年"职业经历与社会网络"调查的数据,并运用Log-Logistic事件史分析模型,分析了在不同历史时期内,初职离职风险的时代差异。研究发现:在不同的历史时期,个体离开初职的风险率存在差异。随着时代的发展,无论是在体制内还是在体制外,个体离开初职的风险率也在增加。体制内工作的个体离开初职的风险率要低于体制外工作的个体,并且在体制内的工作中,初职职业地位的高低对离开初职的风险率没有影响;相反,在体制外的工作中,初职职业地位越高,离开初职的风险率越低。

The differences in the risk rate of resident＇s quitting their first job in different eras may reflect the changes of the structure and mechanism of social stratification in the transition process from planning economy to market economy. Through the analysis of survey 2009 of job experience and social networks, the paper explores the hazard rates of resident＇s quitting their first job in different historical eras by Log-Logistic Even History model. The results show that there are great differences in the hazard rate of quitting first job in different eras, the general trend is that both the hazard rate of quitting first job has been increasing for all individuals both in the government-related sectors and marketized sectors. Of course the hazard rate in government-related sectors is much lower than that of marketized sectors. The social status of first job has no effect on the hazard rate of those working in government-related sectors while it affect greatly the hazard rate of those working in marketized sectors, in other word, the higher social status of the first job, the lower hazard rate of quitting the first job in the marketized sectors.