产流误差的动态系统响应曲线修正方法应用

Application of Runoff Error Correction Based on Dynamic System Response Curve

产流误差的动态系统响应曲线修正方法（DynamicSystemResponseCurve，DSRC）是一种基于微分响应来反演修正的实时修正方法．简要介绍了实时修正概念和三水源新安江模型的结构、计算原理，详细阐述了DSRC的基本修正原理和过程．基于东圳流域1965～1999年共16场历史洪水运用三水源新安江模型洪水预报的结果，分别采用DSRC和二阶自回归（AR）模型进行实时修正．分析比较这16场历史洪水的平均修正结果，表明对洪水预报进行实时修正能提高预报精度，且采用DSRC的修正效果比AR模型更好．

Runoff error correction based on dynamic system response curve （DSRC） is a real-time correction method which used the calculus for inverting. The structure and calculation principle of Xin＇anjiang model is briefly introduced~ and the modified principle and process of DSRC are described in detail. According to the flood forecasting by Xin＇anjiang model of 16 history floods in 1965--1999 in Dongzhen Basin, DSRC and the autoregressive model are both used for the real-time correction of the floods. The average correction results show that the real-time correction method can improve the precision of the flood forecasting and the DSRC method is better than autoregressive method for Dongzhen Basin.