风险矩阵法在鼠疫风险评估中的应用

Application of risk matrix on plague risk assessment

目的构建鼠疫风险评估方法,为鼠疫防控策略的制定和鼠疫防控资源的部署提供理论依据。方法整理1994-2013年人间鼠疫发病资料、动物鼠疫疫情资料,利用风险矩阵法和Borda序值法对中国鼠疫疫源地区进行风险排序。结果 1994-2013年人间鼠疫年均发病34.5人,平均每年有52个县发生动物鼠疫疫情,Borda序值法排序靠前的90个县中,喜马拉雅旱獭疫源地73个县,长爪沙鼠疫源地5个县,大沙鼠疫源地7个县,蒙古旱獭和达乌尔黄鼠疫源地各2个县,齐氏姬鼠大绒鼠疫源地1个县。结论建立基于风险矩阵法和Borda序值法的鼠疫风险评估方法,该方法简便、快捷、实用,值得推广应用。

Objectives To establish a method for plague risk assessment,and to provide the scientific basis for strategies and resources of plague prevention and control. Methods Information of the human plague incidence and animal plague epidemic between 1994 and 2013 was collated,and we conducted the risk ranking of China plague focus areas by using risk matrix and Borda count method. Results The average annual incidence of human plague was 34. 5 from 1994 to 2013,there were average52 counties were calculated with animal plague epidemic occurred annually. In the counties of top 90 sorted by Borda method,73 counties were found as plague natural focus of marmota himalayana in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,5 counties were found as plague natural focus of mongolian gerbil,7 counties were found as plague natural focus of great gerbil,2 counties were found as plague natural focus of marmota sibirica,2 counties were found as plague natural focus of spermophilus dauricus,1 county was found as plague natural focus of apodemus chevrieri. Conclusion We have established a risk assessment approach of plague based on risk matrix and Borda count method,the method is simple,fast,and useful,it is worth popularizing.