货币政策对外自主性:中国的实践

Monetary Policy Autonomy:China's Practice

根据传统国际金融学中蒙代尔一弗莱明模型和“不可能三角”假说，人们普遍认为在有资本流动的前提下，固定汇率制度下货币政策不能对外独立，而更加灵活的汇率制度有助于增强货币政策的对外自主性。但考虑到中国人民银行实施的大规模冲销操作，中国可能在人民币盯住美元和人民币对美元浮动期间都保持了货币政策独立性。利用中国1996年1月～2012年4月的月度数据，考虑到汇率制度调整的结构性突变因素后，我们发现，人民币相对美元升值是考察期货币供给增加的长期因素，而中国利率相对美国利率上升则仅在浮动汇率时期是中国货币供给增加的长期因素。这意味着，虽然中国汇率制度弹性有所扩大，但人民币单边升值过程对管理货币供给造成了障碍。

It is well-established that there is no independent monetary policy under the fixed exchange rate system with capital mobility according to the Mundell-Flemming model and the impossible trinity principal. Only flexible exchange rate regime has monetary policy autonomy. However, it has been argued that China may maintain her monetary policy independence under both the US-dollar peg and the managed floating regime, given the fact that the central bank implemented a large scale of sterilization. Based on the error-correction model that embedded with the structural breaks of exchange rate system using the monthly data over the period from January 1996 to April 2012, we find that the long-term driving force behind the monetary expansion in China is the revaluation of renminbi against the US dollar. The increase of interest rate differential between China and the US only becomes a long-term determinant of China＇s monetary expansion under the managed floating regime. This implies that the unilateral renminbi revaluation process compromises the effective monetary control of the Chinese authority, although the renminbi exchange rate has been getting more flexibility.