基于聚类分析法的省级环境绩效动态评估与分析

Cluster Analysis on Chinese Provincial Environmental Performance Evaluation

为了有效追踪环保产出，考察环保成效，提供决策依据，指导环保工作更好开展，改善长期的重投入轻产出、重建设轻成效、重效果轻效益的管理模式，本研究采用聚类分析方法，分析了2006～2011年全国30个省份（除西藏以外）连续六年的环境绩效表现，从而为绩效变化表现相似的地区的环境管理工作提供决策参考。研究结果表明，北京、河北等省份的环境绩效指数较高地区归为一类；天津、内蒙古等环境绩效指数中等地区归为一类；山西、贵州等环境绩效指数较低地区归为一类。为保证区域环境绩效评估制度运行的长效性，要密切结合区域环境管理体系建设、区域环境安全评估、地方政府环境目标责任考核制度和绩效评估制度等先期工作基础，促使环境绩效评估工作协调、有序地进行。

For effectively tracking environmental outcome, investigating environmental performance, and providing basis for decision making, guiding the environmental protection work better development, improving the management mode of emphasis on investment and neglect output, with emphasis on reconstruction and neglect effect, and with emphasis on effect and neglect benefits in long-term. This study uses clustering analysis method to analyze 30 provinces environmental performance （except Tibet） from 2006 to 2011, so as to provide decision-making reference for the regions which have similar performance in the environmental management. The results show that the provinces which have the higher environmental performance index are classified as a class, such as Beijing, Hebei; Tianjin, Inner Mongolia and so on, with middle environmental performance index are classified as a class; The provinces having the lower environmental performance index are classified as a class, such as Shanxi, Guizhou. It is necessary to combine closely with the construction of regional environmental management system, regional environmental safety assessment, the local government environmental target responsibility assessment system and performance evaluation system for promoting the environmental performance evaluation work carried out in a coordinate and orderly manner.