云南景谷M_s6.6级地震前瞻性预测回顾及其震后趋势分析

A review of prospective prediction for the Jinggu M_s 6.6 earthquake in Yunnan province and an analysis on future earthquake situation

基于作者提出的孕震断层多锁固段脆性破裂理论与相关预测方法,作者曾对普洱地震区未来震情进行前瞻性预测分析,给出了该地震区强震震级、震中经纬度、震源深度以及临界Benioff应变值四要素预测结果.将上述预测结果与2014年10月7日云南景谷MS6.6级地震参数进行比较,表明：四要素预测值与实际值相差不大,对普洱地震区的前瞻性中期预测结果可信.研究表明：2007年普洱ML6.4级震群事件是2014年景谷MS6.6级地震的直接导火索,2014年云南景谷MS6.6级地震并非主震事件,该地震区未来还将发生MS6.4-6.8级地震.预计在向临界状态演化过程中,该地震区还将发生不超过MS6.0级的preshock事件.

Based on the brittle failure theory of multiple locked patches in a seismogenic fault system and associated prediction method developed by us,the prediction results,including the magnitude,place,critical strain,and hypocentral depth of the oncoming strong earthquake for the Pu＇er seismic zone have been published in advance.In comparison with the Jinggu MS6.6 earthquake in Yunnan province occurred on 7 October 2014,they are almost identical, which indicates that our prospective prediction results are credible.Moreover,it is shown that the most immediate cause leading to the Jinggu MS 6.6 earthquake in Yunnan province in 2014 is attributed to the ML6.4 earthquake swarm events in 2007.Moreover,it is found that the Jinggu MS6.6 earthquake in Yunnan province is not a main shock and an earthquake of MS 6.4-6.8 will occur in the Pu＇er seismic zone with some preshock events that are less than MS6.0.