高州市传染病自动预警信息响应与效果分析

Analysis on response and effect of infectious disease automatic warning system in Gaozhou City

目的分析高州市传染病自动预警信息响应与其在预测疾病暴发中的效果,为优化传染病自动预警系统提供依据。方法用描述流行病学方法对高州市的传染病自动预警信息进行分析。结果 2008—2013年高州市共收到预警信号397条,响应率为100%,响应时间中位数为1.86 h（P25～P75：0.51～9.44）。涉及病种17种,排在前3位的依次为麻疹、手足口病、流行性腮腺炎;预警信号逐年增多,信号每年主要集中在6、7月份;疑似事件数为18起,经调查确定9起为暴发/流行,阳性预测值为2.27%;现场调查均在预警信号发出之前。结论阳性预测值低,应根据各地区常见病发病实际和突发公共卫生事件相关规定,确定合适预警阈值,或只针对当地罕见病和新发传染病发出预警。

[Objective]To analyze the response of infectious disease automatic warning system in Gaozhou City,investigate its effect in predicting disease outbreak, and provide the basis for the optimization of infectious disease automatic warning system.[Methods]The data from the infectious disease automatic warning system in Gaozhou City were analyzed by the descriptive epidemiological method. [Results]Totally 397 warning signals were received in Gaozhou City from 2008-2013,the response rate was100%,and the median response time was 1. 86 h（ P25-P75： 0. 51-9. 44）. The warning signals involved 17 diseases,and the top three were measles,hand foot and mouth disease and mumps. The warning signals increased year by year,and mainly concentrated in June and July. There were 18 suspected events,and 9 were identified as the outbreak and epidemic,with the positive predictive value of 2. 27%. The field investigation was conducted before the early warning signal. [Conclusion]The positive predictive value is low. It is necessary to determine the appropriate threshold value of warning according to actual incidence of common diseases and related provisions of public health emergencies in different regions,or send the early warning signals based on only local rare diseases and emerging infectious diseases.