摘要
目的：了解杭州市萧山区梅毒流行病学特征和发病趋势,为制定防制策略提供依据。方法：采用描述流行病学方法对萧山区2004-2013年梅毒发病资料进行三间分布分析;应用回顾性时空重排扫描统计量探测高发聚集区;构建SARIMA模型进行趋势预测。结果：萧山区梅毒发病率从2004年的18.52/10万上升至2013年的58.85/10万,呈明显上升趋势。男女发病比为0.72∶1,主要集中在20~39岁年龄段,职业以农民居多。回顾性时空聚集分析确定了5个可能的梅毒发病聚集区域。模型为SARIMA（0,1,1）（0,1,1）12。结论：萧山区（特别是中部地区）梅毒的流行情况较为严重,应采取综合性防制措施,有效控制梅毒流行。
Objective To explore epidemic characteristics and prevalence trend of syphilis in Xiaoshan District of Hangzhou City and to provide scientific evidence for the prevention and control of the disease.Methods Descriptive epidemiological method was applied to analyze the three distributions of syphilis according to time,space and people within the year 2004~2013in Xiaoshan District.The retrospective space-time permutation scan statistics was used to detect spatial-temporal clusters.SARIMA model was established by using monthly incidence data of syphilis.Results From2004 to 2013,the incidence rate of syphilis in Xiaoshan District increased from 18.52/lakh to 58.85/lakh,suggesting an obvious increasing trend（Z=-28.23,P〈0.01）.The reported syphilis cases were higher among the females,which were mostly found in the population aged 20-39 years and farmers.In the space-time permutation scan analyses,we found five significant clusters.The SARIMA mode model was established as.Conclusions The prevalence of syphilis is serious in Xiaoshan District（especially in central region）.It is necessary to take comprehensive preventive measures to effectively control the syphilis prevalence.
出处
《中国农村卫生事业管理》
2014年第11期1378-1381,共4页
Chinese Rural Health Service Administration
