基于博弈模型的农户技术采纳行为分析

Analysis of Farmers' Technology Adoption Behavior Based on Game Model

农户进行技术创新采纳决策过程中,因为自身知识水平和判断能力的局限,会在很大程度上受到周围其他农户的影响,并因为这种影响发生决策的改变,表现出明显的羊群行为,以致最终倾向于采纳方向上的趋同性。本文以此为出发点,构建了农户技术创新采纳决策的博弈模型和传播模型,并基于此模型展开了实证分析。实证分析的结果显示,交流收益是决定农户决策行为能否产生羊群效应的重要因素,交流范围和交流成本对于农户的决策行为也有重要影响。

Due to farmers＇ limited knowledge and judgment ability,obvious herding behavior during the process of technology innovation adoption is a common phenomenon,which means that farmers may be influenced by others to a large extent,and their decision would change so that they tend to present upward convergence.In this light of thinking,this paper constructs game model and spread model of technology innovation adoption of farmers and then develops the empirical analysis.The empirical analysis shows that exchange earnings is an important factor to determine whether herding behavior happens in the process of farmers＇ technology innovation adoption,and the exchange range and cost also have an effect on the farmers＇ decision- making behavior.