气候变化对海南岛旅游气候舒适度及客流量可能影响的分析

POSSIBLE IMPACT OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGES ON CLIMATE COMFORT DEGREE AND TOURIST FLOWS IN HAINAN ISLAND

选取温度、湿度、日照、降水、风速等相关的气象要素,建立表征海南岛旅游气候的舒适度的旅游气候指数计算模型,利用1981—2010年海南岛气候数据和RCP4.5情景下的预估数据,分析1981—2010年、2011—2040年、2041—2070年海南岛旅游气候指数的空间分布规律。结果表明:表征海南岛旅游气候舒适度的旅游气候指数在不同月份发生明显变化;2011—2040年、2041—2070年海南岛旅游气候指数在温度和降水增加的情况下,与1981—2010年平均水平相比,1月适合旅游活动的舒适水平提高,TCI指数大于70的分布范围增加;在4、7、10月,适合旅游活动的舒适水平降低,TCI指数小于59的分布范围增加。同时选取吸引指数和旅游气候指数,选择海南岛5个旅游客流量较大的海口、三亚、万宁、儋州、五指山,建立海南岛气候-旅游流模型;利用RCP4.5预估数据,在假定旅游吸引指数不改变的情况下,以海南岛的热点城市海口、三亚为例,分析了气候变化情景下旅游气候指数的变化对各月客流量的影响情况,结果表明:随着旅游气候指数的减小将导致该月接待过夜游客数量呈下降趋势。

The use of Temperature,humidity,sunlight,precipitation,wind and other meteorological elements were selected to establish an comfort index for tourism climate,and 1981-2010 climate data and the RCP4.5 scenario predictive data of Hainan Island were used to analyze the tourism climate index for 1981-2010,2011-2040,and 2041-2070.The results showed that the index changed significantly in different months,and with temperature and precipitation increasing,the comfort level for tourists will be improved in January of 2011-2040 and 2041-2070 as compared with the 1981-2010 average level.The comfort level is reduced in April,July,and October.The indices for tourists attraction and climate were used to establish a climate-tourism flows model based on 5 counties of large tourist flows （Haikou,Sanya,Wanning,Danzhou,Wuzhishan） in Hainan Island.Assuming the tourism attraction index does not change,the model was used to analyze how climate change affects the tourist flows by RCP4.5-estimated data,The results showed that with the decrease of the tourism climate index,the quantity of tourists spending a night locally would decrease in Haikou and Sanya.