最终消费与经济增长的协整分析——基于1978～2012年数据的实证研究

The Co-integration Analysis on the Final Consumption and Economic Growth——Empirical Study Based on Data from 1978 to 2012

根据1978～2012年我国最终消费和国内生产总值数据，借助于eviews6.0软件，通过协整检验、格兰杰因果检验、误差修正模型对我国最终消费和经济增长关系进行了实证分析。结果发现：农村居民消费、城镇居民消费、政府消费与经济增长之间存在着稳定的均衡关系；我国农村居民消费对经济增长的拉动作用最强，其次是政府消费，最后是城镇居民消费；城镇居民消费、政府消费是经济增长的单向格兰杰原因。政府消费是农村居民消费、城镇居民消费的单向格兰杰原因。

According to the final consumption and GDP data from 1978 to 2012 , with the eviews 6.0 software , through the co -integration test , granger causality test and error correction model , we makes an empirical analysis on the relationship between final consumption and the economic growth of China . The results are as follows ：there exists a stable equilibrium relationship between the consumption of rural residents , urban residents＇consumption , government consumption and economic growth ;the rural residents＇consumption has the strongest driving effect on economic growth , followed by the government consumption , the last is the urban residents＇consumption . Urban residents＇consumption , government consumption is one -way granger cause of economic growth . Government consumption is one -way granger cause of rural residents consumption and urban residents consumption .