中国企业技术获取型对外直接投资风险量化与评估

Assessment and Quantization of Risks of Technology Sourcing Outward Foreign Direct Investment of Chinese Enterprises

为了更好的防范技术获取型对外直接投资的风险，本文在考量政治风险、经济风险和文化风险的基础上，结合技术获取型对外直接投资的特点，加入技术风险指标，对中国企业技术获取型对外直接投资风险进行量化与评估。首先，采用主成分分析法量化风险；然后，通过聚类分析法评估风险等级。实证研究结果表明：2003～2011年期间，20个样本国家中，低风险国家都是发达国家；中等风险国家有4个，其中只有1个是发展中国家；高风险国家全都是发展中国家，包括印度、南非、墨西哥、巴西和俄罗斯；2008年后，多数发展中国家的风险在不断改善，但很多发达国家的风险却逐渐上升。因此，中国企业应针对不同东道国的风险变化特点，采取措施规避风险。

In order to help Chinese enterprises to avoid risks of technology sourcing outward foreign direct investment , the authors make a quantitative assessment of risks of technology sourcing outward foreign direct investment in this paper . On the basis of assessment of political risks , economic risks and cultural risks , the authors added index of technological risks according to characteristics of technology sourcing outward foreign direct investment . At first , they use principal components analysis to qualify risks . Then , they make an assessment of risks through cluster analysis . The empirical results show that risks of developed countries among all of the 20 sample countries is low during the period from 2003 to 2011 . There are four medium risk countries , but only one is developing country . Risks of all developing sample countries are high . Developing sample countries include India , South Africa , Mexico , Brazil and Russia in this paper . However , risks of most developing countries are becoming lower after 2008 . Risks of many developed countries are on the contrary . Therefore , the authors suggest that in order to control risks , Chinese enterprises should take measures according to the changing characteristics of risks in different host countries .