南海夏季风爆发的研究进展

A Review of the South China Sea Summer Monsoon Onset

南海夏季风的爆发预示着中国东部地区汛期降水的全面开始,是夏季短期气候预测中的关键因子。南海夏季风爆发的研究对改进我国夏季的短期气候预测水平具有重要意义。系统回顾了近几十年来关于南海夏季风在爆发特征、年际变化、外强迫以及内动力过程对爆发的影响机理等方面的国内外研究进展,特别总结了近年来关于大气季节内振荡对南海夏季风爆发影响的研究成果以及关于南海夏季风爆发的预测问题的研究现状,最后提出南海夏季风爆发在全球变化下的响应和可预报性等需要进一步关注的问题。

The onset of the South China Sea Summer Monsoon （SCSSM） indicating the arrival of the rainy season of Eastern China is a key factor for the short-term climate prediction. The advances in the research about the characteristics, interannual variation of SCSSM onset, and the influence of external forces and internal processes on the SCSSM onset are reviewed in this paper, and the impacts of Intraseasonal Oscillation （ISO） on the SCSSM onset are also summarized. Some issues, such as the monsoon-wave interaction, SCSSM change under global warming, the predictability of the SCSSM onset, etc. , are introduced for further study in future.