基于景观格局-过程的城市自然灾害生态风险研究：回顾与展望

Study on the Correlation between Ecological Risk due to Natural Disaster and Landscape Pattern-Process: Review and Prospect

随着当前中国城市化进程的不断加速,自然灾害对城市生态安全的潜在威胁日趋受到关注。城市景观结构和空间形态影响着城市生态环境问题的产生和解决途径,基于景观格局—过程的城市/区域自然灾害生态风险评价成为城市生态风险及可持续研究的重要方向。在明晰城市自然灾害生态风险基本概念内涵及单一、综合自然灾害作用下城市生态风险评价研究进展的基础上,系统梳理了城市地域自然灾害、生态风险与景观格局—过程之间的逻辑关联,综合探讨了城市景观格局—过程与自然灾害交互作用及其在城市生态风险评价、自然灾害生态风险防范等重点领域的研究进展,并提出城市景观格局—过程与自然灾害生态风险的相互影响机理探索、景观时空尺度分异与城市自然灾害生态风险的不确定性分析、基于景观格局—过程的城市自然灾害生态风险综合评估模型与情景模拟等三大重大研究趋向,以期实现基于景观优化的城市自然灾害和生态风险防范的研究目标。

With the continuously accelerating urbanization process in Chi logical security, which is caused by natural disasters, is growing. It is ackno ha, the potential threat on urban ecowledged that the origin and solving of urban eco-environmental problems are significantly influenced by the quantitative structure and spatial patterns of urban landscape. The development of Ecological Risk Assessment （ERA） nowadays also shows that it is a direction for the ERA at the regional scale to take researches based on landscape pattern-process. In this study, firstly, the evaluation of urban ecological risk due to single or multiple natural disasters was reviewed, and the characteristics of the ERA in single type disasters and multi-source disasters were discussed; secondly, the important role of uncertainty analysis at different landscape scales was emphasized; thirdly, the relationships among natural disasters, ecological risks and landscape pattern-process in urban area were analyzed, and the main methods for ERA at landscape or regional scale were listed; fourthly, the key issues of scenario analysis in natural disaster derived ERA at landscape scale were described. After reviewing the distinguished studies on natural disaster derived ERA for both at home and abroad, according to the deficiency in the numerous studies at present, we suggest three research directions should be further developed： （1） to analyze the correlations among urban landscape patterns, natural disasters and associated ecological risks; （2） to quantify the uncertainty based on landscape differences in the temporal or spatial scale; （3） to build the integrated model and simulate the scenarios for urban natural disasters derived ERA based on landscape patterns. Then, these three directions will help to the studies of constructing the optimization schemes on urban landscape patterns or the prevention strategies for urban natural disasters as well as associated ecological risks.