灰霾数值预报系统对不同天气型过程数值模拟分析

Numerical simulation analysis of a haze numerical forecast system in process of different synoptic types

利用2010年南沙气象探测基地灰霾观测资料,采用灰霾数值预报系统对不同天气型过程进行数值模拟,分析珠江三角洲地区空气污染的主要控制因子和主要污染成分及不同天气系统影响下各种排放源对珠江三角洲地区的污染贡献。结果表明:灰霾数值预报模式模拟值与实测值趋势基本一致,除个别极值外,模拟结果能较好和定性地反映珠江三角洲地区各污染物浓度变化,是适合珠江三角洲地区的灰霾数值预报系统。在易出现灰霾月的变性高压入海型和不易出现灰霾月的热带气旋外围下沉气流控制时,各污染物浓度均较高,特别是PM10、PM2.5、元素碳(Elemental Carbon,EC)、有机碳(Organic Carbon,OC)和CO浓度尤其明显。在易出现灰霾月冷空气南下时和不易出现灰霾月无明显天气系统影响时,元素碳EC、有机碳OC和CO浓度较低,其他污染物浓度接近零。无论是否出现灰霾,相对于空气中的其他污染物,元素碳EC、有机碳OC和CO浓度均较高,说明在珠江三角洲地区碳污染较重。

Base on observed haze data in 2010 at Nansha weather station,haze processes of different synoptic types were simulated using a haze numerical forecast system.Main control factors,air pollution components,and pollu-tion contribution of various emission sources under different weather systems in the Pearl River Delta region of China were analyzed.The results show that simulated values from the haze numerical forecast system and observed values are in similar variation trends.In addition to individual extremum,simulation results can better and qualita-tive reflect the variation of pollutant concentration,so the system is suitable to simulate air pollution status in the Pearl River Delta region of China.Pollutant concentrations are high when it is controlled by continental denatured high and outer circulation of tropical cyclones,especially concentrations of PM10 ,PM2.5 ,EC（Elemental Carbon）, OC（Organic Carbon）and CO（Carbon Oxide）.Concentrations of EC,OC and CO is very low and other pollutants′concentrations are close to zero when cold air moves to southward or without a significant weather system.Whether haze appears or not,concentrations of EC,OC and CO are higher than that of other pollutants in the Pearl River Delta region of China,which suggests that carbon pollution is serious in this region.