洞庭湖区近百年气温序列构建及其变化特征

Construction of temperature series in recent 100 years and its changes over Dongting Lake region

采用统计方法结合气象台站历史沿革信息,对1910—2010年洞庭湖区气温观测资料进行均一性检验和订正,并利用洞庭湖区周边气象台站资料对洞庭湖区1951年以前缺测的气温资料进行插补,构成完整的气温序列。基于洞庭湖区完整的气温序列,构建洞庭湖区近百年气温序列并分析其变化特征。结果表明:1910—2010年洞庭湖区年平均气温呈显著上升趋势,其中冬季和春季平均气温上升幅度最大,秋季次之,夏季变化趋势不显著;气温变化存在明显的冷暖交替,冷暖期交替比中国地区更频繁;近百年洞庭湖区年和冬季、春季、秋季平均气温均存在一个显著增暖的突变点;小波分析表明,近百年洞庭湖区年和四季平均气温均经历了冷—暖—冷—暖4个阶段的交替。

Temperature data series for each station in Dongting Lake region during 1910-2010 had been tested for their homogeneity,and the series were adjusted in terms of meteorological historical information by a statistical method.The missing data over the Dongting Lake region before 195 1 were then interpolated using data from the surrounding meteorological stations in order to obtain the complete series.The revised temperature series over the Dongting Lake region during 1910-2010 were built and its changes were analyzed.The results indicate that the an-nual mean temperature has a significant warming trend during 1910-2010,and it has a largest ascending amplitude in winter and spring,and then in autumn,while it has no significant change in summer.Temperature variation over Dongting Lake region has several significant warm-cold alternations and it is more frequently in this study area than in whole China region.Annual and seasonal mean temperatures are warming abrupt changes in the recent 100 years,except summer temperature.The wavelet analysis suggests that the annual mean and four seasonal mean tem-peratures in recent 100 years have experienced two climatic shifts from cold to warm.