金融规模、所有制结构与城镇就业容量——基于1997—2012年中国省级面板数据的分析

The Research on the Relation among Financial Size,Ownership Structure and Urban Employment Capacity: Based on China's Regional Panel Data of 1997—2012

基于1997—2012年中国省级面板数据,运用系统广义矩估计法(SYSGMM),估计了金融规模对于城镇就业容量的效应,并对不同样本组分别估计,以观察地区差异。整体估计结果表明,无论以人员规模还是以增加值规模作为解释变量,估计系数均显著为正,其平方项的系数显著为负。这意味着金融规模能够促进城镇就业,但该效应递减,超过一定临界值将转为抑制效应。分组估计结果表明,金融规模扩张的就业效应在非公有制经济较发达的地区更明显,在非公有制经济欠发达的地区不明显,甚至表现为抑制效应。这意味着一个地区的所有制结构对金融规模与城镇就业的关系有重要影响。为增进金融发展的就业效应,我国一方面应讲求金融增长质量,实现有序适度扩张;另一方面要深化企业改革,激励非公有制经济进一步释放市场活力,以消除金融系统在资源配置中的扭曲效应。

Based on paneL data of China’s 30 provinces from 1997 to 2012,this paper uses SYS-GMM to es-timate the impact financiaL size on urban empLoyment capacity and to estimate different sampLes respectiveLy to observe regionaL differences. The overaLL estimation indicates that no matter what expLanatory variabLe is,staff size or added vaLue size,the estimated coefficient is aLways positive and the estimated coefficient of its square is aLways negative,which means that financiaL size can promote urban empLoyment but with a decreasing trend and,at some point,the promotion wiLL become restraint. The grouping estimation indicates that the expansion of financiaL size can Lead to higher empLoyment in regions where non-pubLic economy is rather sophisticated than in regions where non-pubLic economy is Less deveLoped,which means that the ownership structure of a region pLays an important roLe in the reLation between its financiaL size and urban empLoyment. Furthermore,in order to enhance empLoyment brought by financiaL deveLopment,China shouLd guarantee the quaLity of finan-ciaL growth on one hand to reaLize ordered and moderate expansion and deepen the reform of enterprises on the other hand,to encouraging non-pubLic economy to reLease market vitaLity and to eventuaLLy eLiminate the dis-tortion of financiaL system existing in resource aLLocation.