基于VAR模型的黄金价格影响因素分析

Analysis of Influencing Factors on Gold Price based on VAR Model

自20世纪70年代初期布雷顿森林体系崩溃之后,美国割断了美元与黄金的固定比价关系,使黄金价格步入了市场化的轨道,黄金价格的大幅波动越演越烈,这使得人们越来越重视探讨影响黄金价格的种种因素。为此,利用VAR模型对黄金价格自身、美国通货膨胀率、国际原油价格等因素与黄金价格总水平的关系进行研究。通过研究得到了各因素影响黄金价格总水平的程度,其中发现黄金价格自身的波动是导致国际黄金价格总水平上升的最主要因素,这为研究黄金价格的变动提供了重要依据。

Since the early 1970s, the collapse of the Bretton Woods System, the United States cut off the fixed price relationship between the dollar and gold, so that the market price of gold entered the track , intensified volatil- ity in gold prices, which makes there is a growing emphasis on and explore a variety of factors that affect the price of gold. For this purpose, in particular the relationship between factors and the use of the general price level of gold itself VAR model, the U.S. inflation rate, the international crude oil prices and other research. Obtained by stud- ying the degree of influence of each factor in the overall price level of gold, which found that fluctuations in the price of gold itself is the most important factor leading to rising international gold price level, which provided impor- tant basis for the study of changes in the price of gold.