中国城市人均产出分布动态的可视化分析

Visualized Analysis on Dynamic Distribution of Urban Output in China

本文采用可视化方法分析中国城市人均实际产出和相对产出的分布动态以及分布内的转移动态,研究发现1990-2010年期间,人均实际产出分布经历了从左峰集中向右峰集中的过渡,但少数极富城市会持续保持高速增长,极端差距可能持续存在。个别城市人均实际产出"倒退"现象主要发生在1990-2000年之间,"赶超"现象则主要发生在2000-2010年;就绝对人均实际产出而言,经济落后城市之间存在激烈的"赶超",但经济发达城市的经济排名很少发生变化。2000年之后,人均实际产出俱乐部收敛的可能性增大。经济增长存在"条件β收敛"的机制,并且经济相对发达的城市更容易形成收敛俱乐部。

The paper analyzed distribution dynamics and intra - distribution dynamics of urban output per capi- ta in China using a variety of visualized methods. We find that output distribution experienced a transition from left peak concentration to right peak concentration from 1990 to 2010. Although economic growth tends to cr - conver- gence, extreme output difference is likely to persist. ＂Backwards＂ occurred mainly before 2000 while ＂catch -up＂ mainly occurred after 2000 with the probability of ＂club convergence＂ increased. Economic growth indicates conditionalβconvergence and developed cities tend to form convergence club easier than less developed cities.