交通基础设施的改善能带来多大的外贸增长?

On the Stimulation Effects of Transportation Infrastructure on International Trade

通过对中国各省对外贸易境内途经的省份基础设施与该省贸易额大小关系的研究,本文发现与本地的基础设施相比,对外贸易途径上的基础设施水平应该通过贸易成本的节省而更加显著地影响到进出口水平。在控制变量的内生性及去除零值贸易的影响后,这一结论仍然成立。我们还发现,交通基础设施也对企业是否出口的决定有明显影响,并且在境内运输环节每跨越一次省界就会造成各省进出口的贸易额大约11%到14%的下降。

By studying the impact of transportation infrastructure of provinces that originate and pass through international trades, this paper finds that, by saving trade cost, transportation infrastructure of passing-through provinces' has significant impact on export and import levels, compared to the one of originating provinces. Our finding is robust by instrumenting transportation infrastructure and considering the presence of zero volume trade. We also find that transportation infrastructure has significant influence on firms' export decision, and on average one passing-through on province borders decreases trade volume by 11% to 14%.