基于系统动力学的四川天然气资源税改革效应研究

Effect Analysis of Resource Tax Reform of Sichuan Natural Gas Industry Based on System Dynamics

运用系统动力学方法构建了四川天然气勘探开发的系统动力学模型,分析了天然气勘探开发过程中资源税与其他系统要素间的因果关系和反馈机制。通过仿真,分析了此次资源税"从价计征"改革对四川当地政府税收、资源企业收益、天然气勘探开发等造成的影响和冲击,仿真结果表明:资源税改革极大地增加了地方财政收入,公众满意度明显上升;目前暂行5%的税率水平对资源企业盈利影响有限;资源税计税方式的变化对天然气勘探开发的总量影响不大,但从整个勘探开发动态过程而言,从价计征条件下的资源开发速度更加理性,资源开采更加合理。在此基础上进一步分析天然气价格对资源税改革的影响,最后,根据仿真结果提出了我国深化资源税改革的对策建议。

China started resources tax reform in 2011. The focus of the reform is levying tax based on price instead of production volume for crude oil and natural gas. Taking Sichuan Province, which has affluent natural gas reserve, as an example and using system dynamics methodology, this paper analyzes the effects of resource tax reform from the perspectives of natural gas exploration and exploitation, resource enterprise earnings, local government revenues and local people＇s attitudes to tax reform. The simulation results show that the reform has bolstered the local fiscal revenues and improved people＇s satisfaction, and the 5~ tax rate has had little influence on profits of resource enterprises. The results also show that in terms of total volume of natural gas exploration and production, there is no big difference between levying tax based on production volume and levying tax based on price. However, from the perspective of the dynamic process of exploration and exploitation, the resource extraction rate of levying tax based on price is more reasonable. In addition, by simulation, it is found that the nature gas price has played an important role in resource tax reform. The paper ends with some suggestions for deepening the tax reform.