投资偏好、预算约束与地方政府支出行为

Investment Preference,Budget Constraint and Local Government's Expenditure Behavior

通过建立地方政府最优选择模型,提出政府支出行为的＂四阶段＂假说,并利用中国31个省（区、直辖市）1997-2010年的面板数据进行实证研究。系数随时间变化的变系数模型的回归结果显示,当前中国地方政府大致处于＂四阶段＂的第二、三阶段之间,地方政府投资冲动明显。

This paper constructs an optimal choice model of local government in China,and proposes a ＂four stages＂ hypothesis of local government expenditure behavior,followed by an empirical study with the panel data of 31 provinces of China from 1997 to 2010.The regression result of varying coefficient model shows that,the local government is currently between stageⅡ and stageⅢ,and have strong incentives towards investment.