人民币升值是影响中国出口的主要因素吗——理论与实证研究

Is the Appreciation of Renminbi Main Factor Affecting China's Exports:A Theoretical and Empirical Investigation

本文通过一个具有微观基础的均衡模型刻画了中国出口变化的决定机制,发现汇率仅是影响出口因素之一,其影响方向和力度大小还取决于其他结构性制度性条件;此外,外部需求、出口商品结构、经济发展阶段、劳动力成本、比较优势变化等因素对中国出口有更重要、更确定影响。运用时序数据并首次使用出口国面板数据的实证研究显示,出口的人民币升值弹性为-0.09至-0.54。跨国面板数据分析也表明,汇率变化只能解释各国出口变化的小部分,且随着中国自2008年进入中等收入国家,汇率升值对出口的影响有所减弱。我们认为,尚不存在人民币过快或过度升值的证据,应继续推进汇率形成机制改革,使市场供求对汇率水平及波动起决定性作用。

This paper constructs an equilibrium model with a microscopic characterization to describe the mechanism of China＇s exports, and find that exchange rate is just one of factors that influence export, whose direction and intensity depend on other structural institutional conditions ; additionally, external demand, structure of export commodity, stage of development, labor costs, comparative advantage changes and other factors are more important and assured to China＇s exports. Empirical study using time - series data and exporting country panel data that is firstly used in literature shows that, RMB appreciation elasticity of export is - 0.09-- - 0.54. In addition, cross - border panel data analysis also shows that changes in exchange rates can only explain a small part of changes in national export, and as China became one of the middle - income countries since 2008, the impact of exchange rate appreciation on exports weakens. We think that there is no proof of rapid or excessive appreciation of the RMB, and the authority should continue to promote exchange rate formation mechanism reform to make market to be decisive role in exchange rate determination.