摘要
本文在考虑政策选择中存在的非随机自选择问题的基础上,研究发展中国家股票市场开放的长期平均增长效应和短期动态增长效应。研究发现,股票市场开放对发展中国家的长期经济增长没有显著影响;它在短期内存在显著的增长效应,但主要是由消费而非投资的增长所导致;并且这一消费拉动的短暂繁荣也绝非没有代价。在开放后十年左右,投资增长的下降最终带来显著的负增长效应以及货币危机发生概率的显著提高。
We examine both the long - run average and the year - by - year dynamic growth effects of stock mar- ket liberalization while controlling for the self - selection problem of policy adoption. We show that, despite in- significant long -run effects, liberalization stimulates growth in the first four -year period following liberalization. However, this temporary growth phenomenon is driven by consumption rather than investment. Further- more, the impact of liberalization on growth eventually becomes significantly negative since the 10th year of liberalization and is accompanied by lower investment growth and higher probabilities of currency crises.
出处
《金融研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2014年第11期142-158,共17页
Journal of Financial Research
基金
复旦大学985工程三期整体推进社会科学研究项目(2012SHKXQN001)资助
关键词
股票市场开放
增长效应
新古典增长理论
Stock market liberalization, Economic growth, Neo -classical growth theory