福兮祸之所伏:发展中国家股票市场开放的增长效应再探究

The Sweet-Bitter Growth Story of Stock Market Liberalization in Developing Countries

本文在考虑政策选择中存在的非随机自选择问题的基础上,研究发展中国家股票市场开放的长期平均增长效应和短期动态增长效应。研究发现,股票市场开放对发展中国家的长期经济增长没有显著影响;它在短期内存在显著的增长效应,但主要是由消费而非投资的增长所导致;并且这一消费拉动的短暂繁荣也绝非没有代价。在开放后十年左右,投资增长的下降最终带来显著的负增长效应以及货币危机发生概率的显著提高。

We examine both the long - run average and the year - by - year dynamic growth effects of stock mar- ket liberalization while controlling for the self - selection problem of policy adoption. We show that, despite in- significant long -run effects, liberalization stimulates growth in the first four -year period following liberalization. However, this temporary growth phenomenon is driven by consumption rather than investment. Further- more, the impact of liberalization on growth eventually becomes significantly negative since the 10th year of liberalization and is accompanied by lower investment growth and higher probabilities of currency crises.