我国阶梯电价改革的长期影响及动态调整分析

Analysis of Long-term Effect and Dynamic Adjustment for Electric Power Industry Step Tariff Reform in China

对阶梯电价政策的长期经济性影响趋势进行拟境分析,对建立阶梯电价方案的动态调整机制有着重要意义。从阶梯电价的经济杠杆作用入手,运用系统动力学基本原理构建了中国居民阶梯电价政策效应传递模型,模拟阶梯电价政策对电力工业体系中电网公司、发电企业、用户等市场主体的长期影响效应趋势。以某省份地区电网的基础数据为例进行模拟,结果表明:现行居民阶梯电价政策短期内会给电网企业和发电企业带来巨额利润,但是这种利好作用在约10年后会消失,并有可能对其利润带来负面影响;阶梯电价参数敏感性比较高,居民阶梯电价动态调整机制更有利于电力工业长期可持续发展;同时上网电价、电煤价格、单位煤耗等指标会呈现明显下降趋势,但居民节能行为指标上升趋势并不显著。

Analysis of the dweller step tariff policy long-term effect has important significance for dynamic adjustment mechanism.From the economic leverage of step tariff,with the basic theory of system dynamics,the system dynamics model of Chinese dweller step tariff policy effect transmission was established and applied to simulate the trend of the step tariff policy effect on market entity.Based on the data of a power grid in certain province regions,the simulation was carried out,and results show that the dweller step tariff policy will bring power grid and power plant fat profit in a short time,but this good effect will disappear in about ten years and may have negative effect on corporate profits.Moreover,the electricity price parametric is of high sensitivity and the dweller step tariff policy dynamic adjustment mechanism is more conducive to the electric power industry long-term sustainable development.Meanwhile,some indicators including pool purchase price,power coal price and unit coal consumption has an obvious decreasing trend,but residents energy saving behavioral indicator rises less than expected.