金融发展对促进产业结构调整的作用分析——基于VAR模型

The Promoting Role of Financial Development on Industrial Structure Adjustment Based on VAR Model

采用我国1978-2013年反映金融发展和产业结构调整的指标数据,基于VAR模型进行实证分析金融发展与产业结构调整之间的关系,研究发现我国金融发展与产业结构调整之间存在着双向的因果关系,从长期来看,金融发展对产业结构调整具有明显的正向效应。为充分发挥我国金融发展与产业结构调整的相互促进的作用,应不断深化金融制度,完善金融行业的法人治理结构,增强金融机构抵御风险的能力,逐步提升其整体实力。同时,加快企业的股权结构改革,使企业能够以参股、控股、收购等方法进行各种形式的兼并重组,对兼并重组的企业在进行技术改造与产品结构调整方面加大金融支持力度。

Analyzing empirically the relationship between financial development and industrial structure adjustment based on indicator data from 1978 to 2013 and VAR model, we found that their relationship is bidirectional Causality and financial development has an obvi- ous positive effect on the industrial restructuring in the long run. In order to give full play to their promoting role; the government should deepen the financial system, improve corporate governance structure, enhance the ability to withstand risks and gradually improve the overall strength. Meanwhile, the government should speed up equity structural reforms, enable businesses to mergers and acquisitions by means of hold shares and acquisitions, and increase financial support for technological transformation and product structure adjustment.