台湾农产品贸易的影响因素分析——基于台湾农业对外直接投资视角

Analysis of the factors affecting agricultural trade in Taiwan——From the perspective of foreign direct investment of Taiwan agriculture

通过建立引力模型对2006-2012年中国台湾与中国大陆、日本、美国等13个主要国家(地区)的农产品贸易的影响因素进行实证分析,结果表明:台湾地区农业对外直接投资会阻碍农产品的进出口贸易;台湾地区和其他国家(地区)的GDP乘积、伙伴国(地区)的贸易开放度与台湾地区农业对外直接投资的交叉项对台湾农产品进出口贸易有促进作用;地理距离对台湾农产品出口贸易起阻碍作用,但对农产品进口贸易的影响却为正。在此基础上,提出台湾地区应加强与贸易开放度高的国家(地区)的合作,注意贸易和投资管理措施的协调统一,走创新资产寻求型的投资道路等,以促进台湾农业对外直接投资与贸易协调发展。

By using the gravity model, the paper empirically explores the factors affecting agricultural trade between Taiwan and 13 countries （ regions） including China mainland, Japan, and the US from 2006 to 2012. The results show that the outward agricultural foreign direct investment of Taiwan hinders its agricultural import and expert. The products of GDP of Taiwan and those of its part- ncrs and the cross terms of trade openness of its partners and the outward Taiwan agricultural foreign direct investment have positive effects on Taiwan agricultural import and export. However, geographic distance hinders Taiwan agricultural export but its impacts on agricultural import are positive. Taiwan should enhance cooperation with countries （regions） at high trade openness level, focus on coordinating and unifying trade and investment regulations, and pursue innovatiun-assets-seeking investment to coordinate the devel- opment of outward agricultural foreign direct investment and the trade.