SIR型传染病的模糊控制研究

Fuzzy control research of SIR epidemic model

根据已有的SIR型传染病的微分方程模型,把具有模糊性的政府采取的控制措施,信息的发布力度及隔离强度等转化为传染病微分方程中的参数λ,设计了一个双输入单输出的模糊控制器,以我国的甲型H1N1数据为例对模型中的参数进行确定,建立控制规则并进行了仿真分析,仿真结果显示所设计的模糊控制系统具有一定的可靠性,验证了本文方法的可行性,最后对自愈率的灵敏度分析表明提高疾病治疗的成功率,可以有效控制疫情的扩大传播和蔓延.

First, based on SIR differential model for the spread of epidemic, this paper tries to convert the fuzziness of the government’s control measures such as the strength of the information release and isolation to the value of parameter λ. It also designs a dual input and single output fuzzy controller, using data of H1N1 as an example to determine the parameters in the model, and at the same time carries on the simulation analysis. The simulation results show that the design of fuzzy control system has a certain reliability. The feasibility of the method is verified. Finally, the healing rate sensitivity analysis shows that to improve the success rate of treatment of disease can effectively control the spread of the epidemic and the spread of the expansion.