安徽经济增长影响因素的实证分析

An Empirical Analysis of Economic Growth Influencing Factors of Anhui Province

投资、消费和净出口是拉动经济增长的"三驾马车".为了实证三者对安徽省经济增长的影响程度,文章运用协整回归模型和格兰杰因果检验,对安徽省2000—2012年的历史数据进行了分析.结果显示:固定资产投资总额、全社会消费品总额、出口总额均与安徽省GDP成正相关关系;从长期看,三者对安徽省GDP的贡献由大到小依次为消费、出口和固定资产投资总额,而短期内只有投资是GDP的格兰杰原因.并据此提出了相关的政策建议,以期有利于促进安徽经济的可持续发展.

Based on the historical data from 2000 to 2012 of Anhui Province, with cointegration regression model and the Grainger causality test Investment employed, the impact from invest, consumption and net exports on economic growth is analyzed. The findings show that the total amount of fixed assets investment, consumer goods of the whole society and the total export has a positive correlation with GDP; In the long run, the contribution to GDP in descending order is consumption, exports and fixed asset investment amount, while in the short run, only the investment is the reason for Grainger GDP. Finally the paper puts forward relevant recommendations.