世界主要木本植物油产业贸易格局分析——基于时间序列模型

Analysis on Trade Pattern of Major Woody Vegetable Oil Industry in the World——Based on Time Sequence Model

基于FAOSTAT数据库的相关数据,利用时间序列模型对近50年(1961-2011年)世界主要木本植物油的贸易格局及其变动状况进行分析。结果表明:1961-2000年和2001-2011年这两个时段的世界主要木本植物油产业贸易规模均呈现显著的线性增长规律,且前后两时期的增速不同;棕榈油和棕榈仁油的贸易规模对世界主要木本植物油的贸易规模和结构影响更显著;世界主要木本植物油的出口贸易格局市场分布极不均衡,而进口贸易格局市场分布相对均衡。

Based on the relevant data from FAOSTAT database,this paper analyzed trade pattern and the changes in trade of the world’s major woody vegetable oil in the past 50years（1961-2011）by time sequence model.The results showed that trade scale of the world’s major woody vegetable oil in 1961-2000 and 2001-2011 appeared significant linear growth rule,and the growth rates were different in the two time frames.Trade scale of palm oil and palm kernel oil had an significant impact on trade scale and structure of the world’s major woody vegetable oil.Export trade patterns of the world’s major woody vegetable oil were very unequal,but its import trade patterns were equal.