阿克苏地区水资源生态足迹核算与预测研究

Research for Calculation and Prediction of Water Resource Ecological Footprint in Aksu Administrative Offices

通过水资源生态模型计算阿克苏地区水资源生态足迹、水资源生态承载力和生态赤字。根据已知年数据,运用灰色预测GM（1,1）模型预测2012~2024年的生态赤字（盈余）趋势。结果表明,该区水资源生态足迹先增后减,水资源承载力趋于平稳,说明水资源综合利用发展趋势从不合理逐步发展为科学有效的利用。但水资源利用仍然处于赤字状态,因此阿克苏地区水资源问题依然紧迫。

The ecological footprint, ecological carrying capacity and deficit of water resources in Aksu region was calculated. According to data, grey prediction GM （ 1, 1 ） model was used to forecast the trend of ecological deficit （surplus） from 2012 to 2024. The results showed that the ecological footprint of water after the first increased, water resources carrying capacity leveled off, indicating that the development trend of integrated water resources is gradually from irrational use to scientific and effective use. But still water resource is still in deficit, therefore, Aksu region water resources problem is still pressing.