东莞市外来暂住人口变化特征及其与地方经济发展的关系研究

Research on Variation Characteristics of External Transient Population and Its Relationship to Local Economic Development in Dongguan City

根据东莞市统计局公布的统计资料，分析了东莞市1986—2013年外来暂住人口总数（ETP）、性别比例（SR）和就业结构的变化特征及其同地方经济发展关系，旨在为流动人口的科学管理提供依据。分析结果表明：东莞市外来暂住人口变化具有阶段性变化特征，与地方经济发展状况紧密相关，即在1986～1995年（缓慢增长期），经济缓慢增长，ETP以年均递增15．62万人的速率缓慢递增，但SR不足0．65，男女比例严重失调；1996—2006年（快速增长期），经济增长加速，ETP以年均递增46．08万人快速递增，其峰值达到586．76万人，SR上升到接近0．93；2006～2009年属于ETP递减调整期，期间受亚洲金融风暴影响，经济发展速度减缓，产业结构调整使多数企业向高技术、高附加值企业转型，至2010年ETP递减到412万人，其后ETP基本稳定在近415万人，SR上升到0．99接近平衡。东莞市外来劳动力就业行业比例是工业企业约83％、商业约9％、服务业约6％、农业仅2％，并且该就业行业比例在各时期没有显著差异。相对稳定的ETP、接近于平衡的男女比例和适合于当地产业结构的就业行业比例有助于东莞市社会经济的可持续发展。

Based on statistic data publicly issued by the Bureau of Statistics of Dongguan City, the variation characteristics of the external transient population （ETP） , sex ratio （SR） and employment structure during period of 1986 -2013 and its relationship with local economic development were analyzed in order to provide bases for scientifically management of external transient population. The result shows that the variation of external transient population in Dongguan has characters of phase changes, and has good relations with local economic development status, i. e. , during the slow growth stage from 1986 to 1995, regional GDP grew slowly, and ETP increased slowly at speed of 0. 1562 millions per year, and SR was below 0.65, which means there existed a serious sex imbalance problem; during the rapid growth stage from 1996 to 2006, regional GDP grew rapidly, and ETP increased at speed of 0.4608 millions per year, its maximum value arrived at 5. 8676millions, and SR raised to 0.93 ; the period from 2006 to 2009 was the decreasing adjustment stage of ETP, in which the developing speed of local economy had been slowed down because of the impact of Asian financial turmoil, and most enterprises had been adjusted their industrial structures to high-tech and high value-add- ed enterprises; ETP was decreased to 4.12 million in 2010 and kept near 4.15million later, and SR is getting to 0.99 close to balance status. The employment structure proportion of external transient labors in Dongguan behaves as about 83% for industrial enterprises, about 9% for com- mercial businesses, about 6% for services and only 2% for agricultural enterprises, and there was no significant difference of the proportion of employment structures in each period. Relative stable ETP, balanced sex ratio and employment structures appropriate to local industrial structures can give certain contributions to sustainable development of social economy in Dongguan.