国有产权、体制扭曲与产能利用——基于中国1998～2007年制造业行业的面板分析

SOEs,Distorted System and Capacity Utilization——An Empirical Study Based on Chinese Industrial Panel Data from 1998 to 2007

以1998～2007年中国工业企业数据为基础，构建两位数行业面板数据，研究中国制造业行业的产能过剩成因。研究发现：（1）国有产权性质及其与要素价格负向扭曲和预算软约束的交互项对产能利用率的影响显著，且国有产权性质的产能过剩效应在增强；（2）要素价格负向扭曲的产能过剩效应在增强；（3）预算约束硬化的产能过剩效应在增强，其源于国有产权的预算软约束恶化；（4）加快市场化进程，提高行业集中度，降低信息不对称的前景共识，有利于提高行业产能利用率；（5）政府补贴对行业产能利用率的影响不显著。最后，就以上分析提出了相应的政策建议。

This paper examined the cause of manufacturing industry overcapacity in China with two-digit industry data based on the data of Chinese industrial firms from 1998 to 2007. The main conclusions include： （ 1 ） SOEs have interactional relationship with factor price distortion and soft budget constraint on capacity utilization significantly, and total capacity excess effect of SOEs is increasing. （2） Factor price distortion of capacity excess effect is increasing. （3） The soft budget constraint deterioration produced capacity utilization effect. （4） Speeding up process of marketization, increasing industry concentration and reducing information asymmetry about the prospect of consensus can improve capacity utilization. （5） The influence of government subsidies to industry capacity utilization rate is not significant. Finally, according to the above analysis, we put forward to some corresponding policy proposals.