基于最小偏差组合权重的突发事件应急能力评价模型

Combination Weight Model of Emergency Ability Evaluation with Minimum Deviation

在突发事件应急能力评价问题中存在着不同评价方法的冲突性,即群决策评价结果的方法依赖性问题。本文以高速公路突发事件应急能力评价为研究对象,提出了基于最小偏差组合权重的评价模型。首先,系统地分析了高速公路突发事件应急能力的评价问题,建立了基于过程管理的高速公路突发事件应急能力评价的指标体系。根据语言评价指标分别运用二元语义层次分析法、G1主观赋权法和基于熵值法的二元语义赋权法等三种方法确定各评价指标的权重,然后综合各种评价方法构建了基于最小偏差的组合权重线性规划模型,确定准则层的最优复合权重,得出高速公路应急能力的评价值。最后,以上海"9·14"重大道路交通事故作为应急能力评价的分析案例,比较了不同评价模型的结果,并对评价指标进行敏感性分析。研究结果表明,基于最小偏差组合权重的评价模型能够在多个评价模型中达到最大的一致性,从而有效地减少了群决策中不同主客观评价方法的"极化"效应。

Emergency ability evaluation has a problem with the result conflict among the different evalua-tion methods, that is to say, the evaluation result of group decision depends on the evaluation method a- dopted. Emergency ability evaluation of accident occurred on expressway is studied in this paper. There have some problems that deserve some special consideration. Because the emergency rescue time gets tight, and road needs to be cleared as soon as possible, the index system of emergency ability evaluation in accident occurred on expressway should consider those factors. The evaluation method should deal with the linguistic information of expert evaluation. Furthermore, considering result differences among various e- valuation methods, there has an optimization problem among various evaluation methods. A combination weight model of emergency ability evaluation is built, which is constituted of the linear combination of se- ries of evaluation methods including 2-tuple linguistic AHP, G1 subjective weighting method, and 2-tuple linguistic entropy evaluation method, according to the minimum deviation principle. Along with the re- search idea of “the index system of emergency ability evaluation-various evaluation methods and corre- sponding combination weight model-case analysis”, the paper mainly contains the following three parts. Firstly, the emergency ability in accident occurred on expressway is systematically analyzed and the index system of emergency ability evaluation in accident occurred on expressway is built based the idea of process management, Which includes the criterion layer with four first-level indexes and the index layer with 22 second-level indexes. Secondly, based on the linguistic assessment indexes, 2-tuple linguistic AHP, G1 subjective weighting method, and 2-tuple linguistic entropy evaluation method are used to compute the in- dex weights, and then the linear programming model of combination weights with minimum deviation is built, which integrates above evaluating methods, to compute the optimal composite weight of the criterion layer. So the emergency ability evaluation value is obtained in accident occurred on expressway. Shanghai expressway emergency ability of “9 · 14” major road traffic accident is evaluated by the above model, and the different results derived from four evaluation methods are compared. In addition, the sensitivity analy- sis of evaluation indexes is discussed. Results show that the combination weight model with the minimum deviation principle achieves the maximum degree of consistency among different evaluation methods, and reduces “the polarization effect” of various evaluation methods in group decision, which can be applied into the field of emergency ability evaluation. The combination weight model with the minimum deviation prin- ciple can be not only applied to optimization problem among other various evaluation methods, but also other types of multiple attribute group decision making problems.