交通环境对高速公路运营安全性影响综合评价

Comprehensive Evaluation of Effect of Traffic Environment on Expressway Traffic Operational Safety

在广泛收集数据及相关资料的基础上,以高速公路互通式立交为节点,两互通式立交之间的路段为一个评价单元,用系统工程、统计回归的思想,结合事故资料分别建立高速公路的道路条件、交通条件、立交间距事故预测模型以及互通式立体交叉各个匝道的事故预测模型。在事故预测模型的基础上,利用层次分析法建立交通环境对高速公路运营安全性影响评价体系及综合评价模型,并根据数理统计的理论提出相应的安全评价标准,为高速公路管理部门有针对性地采取安全保障措施,预防事故的发生提供了参考和依据。

On the basis of extensive collection of data and related information, choosing expressway interchange as the node,and the section between 2 interchanges as an evaluation unit,by using systems engineering and statistical regression,and combining with the traffic data,the accident prediction models of road condition,traffic condition,interchange spacing,and interchange ramps of expressway are created. On this basis,the evaluation system and comprehensive evaluation model of traffic environmental influence on expressway operation safety are constructed using AHP,and the security evaluation criterion is put forward with the mathematical statistics theory to provide reference and evidence for expressway administration to take security measures and prevent accidents.