绿色建筑项目风险测度与评价假设模型研究

Research on hypotheses model of assessing and measuring risk factors on green buildings' projects

将绿色建筑项目的全寿命周期划分为决策阶段、设计阶段、施工阶段、试运行阶段和运营维护阶段5个阶段,以经济目标、环境目标和社会目标作为评价绿色建筑项目的目标体系,以此建立我国绿色建筑项目的风险测度与评价假设模型.通过问卷调查获得151份有效样本数据,运用结构方程模型对模型进行验证分析,得到绿色建筑项目全寿命周期5个阶段及31个关键风险因素对绿色建筑项目的影响路径和影响系数(包括直接影响、间接影响和总影响).研究结果表明:15个阶段对绿色建筑项目的影响路径和影响系数有所不同,决策阶段和运营维护阶段是影响绿色建筑项目最关键的两个阶段;2全寿命周期31个关键风险因素根据综合影响系数大小分为一级风险、二级风险与三级风险.该研究成果可为绿色建筑的参建主体对项目阶段和关键风险因素实行分层管理提供理论依据,从而促使绿色建筑在我国的顺利实施和推广.

According to its characteristics green building life cycle is divided into five stages,namely,feasibility study and planning stage,design stage,construction stage,trial operation stage,and operation and maintenance stage.By combining economic,environmental and social goals as one target system for the evaluation of green buildings＇ success,this study aims to establish a risk measurement and evaluation hypothesis model based on the structural equation model in China.A total of 151 valid questionnaires were collected through a survey,and then verified model by using structural equation modeling.In addition,impact factors and paths including the direct effect,indirect effect and total effect of 31 key risk factors and five stages of life cycle on the green buildings were analyzed.The results reveal that there is significant difference among risk impact level and path of five stages to green building life cycle,feasibility study and planning stage and operation and maintenance stage are the most critical stage affecting green building;and the 31 key risks impact were classified into three grades：grade one,grade two and grade three.The results provide a theoretical foundation for green building participants to effectively manage the risk and the stage based on its impact level,and thus contribute to the implementation of green building in our country.