乘客异常行为引发地铁运行延误事件关键路径识别

Identifying critical path to metro operation delay incident due to passengers' aberrant behavior

为研究乘客行为影响地铁运营的关键路径,基于案例对地铁乘客异常行为(PAB)进行分类,提炼乘客异常行为导致地铁运营事故的形成机理。运用模糊Petri网(FPN),构建反映致因要素之间关系的模型。利用Matlab实现基于前向推理的路径识别方法,识别FPN模型的所有可达路径,并根据解模糊值确定关键路径。结果表明:需首要防止乘客间发生冲突或乘客强行上下车导致的人或物进入地铁限界,其次应确保司机及时发现轨道区险情,以避免碰撞事故发生。为此,应加强站务人员、司机应急能力培训;充分利用地铁监控设施发现险情;加大对乘客严重禁止性行为的惩罚力度。

In order to study the impact of PAB on metro operation,PAB was firstly classified based on case study,and then formation mechanism of metro delay that caused by PAB was extracted. FPN was applied to establish a causation model that reflects the relationship between causing factors. With Matlab a forward-based reasoning approach for path identification was developed to explore all the reachable paths,and finally to determine critical path in accordance with defuzzified values. Results show that passengers conflicting or passengers on and off disorderly that may result in people or articles accessing to orbit area should be prevented primarily,and that it’s pivotal to make drivers notice the dangers in orbit area timely so as to avoid collision accident. Therefore,metro attendants and drivers should be trained to improve their emergency ability,metro monitor facilities should be made a full use in detecting dangers,passengers who commit severe violation behavior deserve a heavy punishment.