基于多因素灰色预测模型的生活污水量预测研究

Prediction of Domestic Sewage Discharge Amount Based on Multiple Factor Grey Forecasting Model

生活污水作为城市水环境的主要污染源,进行生活污水排放量的预测是十分必要的。污水排放量预测方法有多种,不同的方法有各自不同的特点。为提高预测精度,采用灰色预测与多元线性回归相结合的方法,综合各种因素建立多因素灰色预测模型。并以人口和人均纯收入作为影响因素,将该模型应用于苏州横泾街道生活污水排放量的趋势预测中。结果表明:该模型能反映系统的实际情况,建模精度高,平均相对误差只有0.069 8%,值得在污水排放预测中推广应用。

As the main pollution source of urban water environment, it is necessary to predict the discharge amount of domestic sewage. There are many types of wastewater consumption prediction methods with different characteristics. To improve the prediction precision, this paper combined grey forecasting with multiple linear regression, and established the grey forecasting model of multiple factors by synthesizing all kinds of factors. Choosing population and per capita income as factors, this model was applied to the trend prediction of sewage discharge of Suzhou Hengjing Street. The results show that the model can reflect the real situation of the system, and the model building accuracy is high and its average relative error only is 0. 069 8 percent. It is applicable to the prediction of sewage discharge.