我国非油气资源矿种需求评价及优先勘查序列厘定

The Evaluation of China's Mineral Resources Demand and Exploration Priority Sequence

重点勘查矿种优先序列评价对新时期我国地质勘查工作科学部署、提高勘查效果、有效缓解资源压力具有重要的先导意义。本文在合理研判未来20年我国主要非油气矿产资源需求趋势的基础上,厘定了矿产的优先勘查序列。首先根据我国矿产资源的供需特征从134种矿产中初步筛选出48种作为评价样本;然后建立了包括资源安全程度、经济意义、国防和战略意义以及资源勘查前景等4项二级指标和未来需求趋势等11项三级指标的重点勘查矿种评价指标体系,并运用层次分析法进行了系统评价;最后,结合共伴生等影响因素,对优先勘查矿种进行了合理归并,确立了我国非油气矿产勘查的4级优先序列:1)重点勘查矿种:铜(钴、碲)、铀等;2)优先勘查矿种:锡(铋、钪)、石墨、萤石等;3)次优先勘查矿种:银、钼(铼、硒)等;4)一般勘查矿种:金刚石、叶蜡石等。

The choice of the most important minerals for exploration is of great guiding significance for the promotion of scientific deployment, improvement of the exploration work and alleviation of the pressure on resource supply effectively in the new period. In this paper the authors determined the priority sequence of mineral exploration on the basis of judging demand trends reasonably in the next 20 years. Firstly, 48 minerals were preliminarily screened out from 134 kinds of minerals for further evaluation by analyzing minerals’ supply and demand characteristics and establishing four principles. Secondly, the evaluation index system was established, which included 4 secondary indicators （resource insecurity, economic significance, defense and strategy significance, and exploration prospects） and 11 third-level indicators such as future demand trends. Then the importance ranking of 48 minerals was obtained with AHP. Lastly, some minerals were merged based on the consideration of the associated mineral resources, and then four-grade priority sequence for non-oil mineral exploration was determined： 1） Focused exploration minerals such as copper （cobalt） and uranium; 2） Priority exploration minerals such as Tin, graphite and fluorite; 3） Second priority exploration minerals such as silver, molybdenum and gold; 4） General exploration minerals such as diamond and pyrophyllite.