中东地区政治环境变化及其对中国油气战略投资的影响

The Middle East's politi cal and policy environment change and its impact on strategic Chinese oil and gas investment

近年来,中东地区的政治政策环境发生了许多新变化:一是教派冲突与地缘政治竞争导致地区局势剧烈波动;二是重大政治变革导致主要国家内部领导人更迭;三是绝大多数资源国政府迫于经济压力增产意愿强烈。中东地区是"一带一路"战略中的关键节点,能源合作特别是石油上游开发合作是中国政府和企业大力推进的重中之重。中国在中东地区的能源投资既有伊朗这种国际关系仍陷于困境的市场,又有伊拉克这样局势混乱的高风险市场,还有阿联酋这种有望取得突破的稳定市场。中国企业亟须确立稳健的投资战略思路,加强政治风险分析,部署切实的风险防范措施。

Many changes have occurred in the Middle East in recent years: first, drastic volatility in the case of sectarian conflict and competitive geopolitics; second, leadership change inside major countries reflecting major shift in the political landscape; as well as, third, a definite strong desire by the great majority of resource countries to increase production under great economic pressure. The Middle East is the key node in a "One Belt and One Road" strategy and energy cooperation, especially in upstream oil exploration and development, is the top priority of China's government and companies. Chinese companies have invested in the energy industries of many Middle Eastern countries, such as Iran surrounded by a harsh external environment, and Iraq with its chaotic and risky market, as well as the UAE expected to provide a stable market breakthrough to Chinese companies. Accordingly Chinese companies urgently need to adopt sound strategic investment thinking, improve political risk analysis, and deploy effective measures to protect against risk.