前苏联经济增长的TFP讨论——苏俄与西方序列的比较

TFP Discussion for U.S.S.R.'s Economic Growth---A Comparison of Russian and Western Data Series

由于历史和统计制度的原因,前苏联经济增长的高速性和争议性并存。对此,苏俄与西方过去一直存在认知差异。本文以序列为研究切入点,对双方的前苏联经济数据及TFP分析进行了整理、比较和讨论。通过规模报酬不变假设的C-D生产函数余值方法,分1928-1990和1960-1990两个时段独立测算了5种不同的投入产出组合下前苏联宏观经济增长TFP的变动。由于西方低估经济增长且高估资本投入,1950年以前双方的TFP走势判断截然相反。而1960年后的前苏联经济增长主要依靠要素投入。就70年代后陷入TFP持续倒退的问题而言,双方数据分析的结果是一致的。

Due to the historic reasons and the statistics system, it is under heated discussion regarding the high speed of former U.S.S.R economic growth. Cognitive difference used to exist both in the Soviet Union and the West. In this article, Russian and western economic series data of U.S.S.R are collected, compared and discussed. By the residual methodology of C-D production function under constant returns to scale condition, changes of U.S.S.R TFP in economic growth is estimated by 5 different input-output combinations for the periods respectively from 1928 to 1990 and from 1960 to 1990. Because of underestimated economic growth and overestimated capital input by the West, completely opposite judgments in TFP trend before 1950 are made. Actually, since 1960, the U.S.S.R growth mainly relied on factor inputs. The analysisbased on both data gives a similar result that U.S.S.R TFP has declined since 1970s.