基于快速公交系统不同配置的潜在客流分析

Analysis of potential ridership based on different deployments of bus rapid transit system

为了研究不同供给条件下快速公交系统的客流规模差异,从系统配置角度出发,借助网络交通平衡分配原理,建立了基于变分不等式的潜在客流预测模型.利用路段运行时间、场站停留时间和站点驻留时间反映不同的系统配置.为求解方便,将系统配置吸引的潜在客流转化为网络中的潜在交通量进行计算.求解时,将变分不等式模型转化为随机用户均衡模型求解部分变量,再采用相似对角化方法求解变分不等式中的弹性发车频率,通过弹性发车频率与流量间的关系最终得到网络的潜在交通量.算例比较了快速公交系统各级配置吸引潜在客流的大小.数值仿真结果表明,各级配置吸引的客流差异较大,且在公交的客流预测中占有较大比重.

To study the BRT（bus rapid transit）ridership difference with different deployments,using the network equilibrium assignment theory,the potential ridership forecasting model based on the vari-ational inequality is proposed.The different BRT deployment is characterized in the model by the trav-el time on the section,terminal time and dwelling time at stations.The potential ridership is trans-ferred to the potential trip production in the network for solving the model.When solving the model, the variational inequality model is equivalent to the user equilibrium model to obtain some variables. Next,the elastic frequency in the variational inequality model can be obtained by the analogous diago-nalization method.Finally,the potential trip production can be calculated by the relationship of elastic frequency and link volume.Different potential ridership of corresponding levels of deployment is illus-trated in the numerical example.The results show that the potential ridership of different deployments is obviously different,and the potential ridership has a big proportion in the total ridership.