基于kappa一致性检验的企业生命周期判定方法比较

Comparing of the Corporate Life Cycle Assessment Methods Based on Kappa Test

抽取40个机械制造业上市公司为样本,用纵向数据的回归分析法、产业增长率法和横向数据的主成分分析法对样本公司进行生命周期的判定。根据Kappa一致性检验的思想,提出多重Kappa一致性检验,并将其应用于三种生命周期判定方法的一致性研究。结果表明:(1)回归分析法和产业增长率法判定结果不具有一致性;回归分析法与主成分分析法结果不具有一致性;产业增长率法与主成分分析法结果具有一致性。(2)三种方法在判定企业生命周期的运用中各有所长。

Based on sample of 40 mechanical manufacturing listed companies random selected, the paper uses regression analysis and industrial growth rate method of longitudinal data, principle components analysis of transverse data to determinate the development stage of those companies. The paper puts forward multiple Kappa consistency test, and applies it in research on consistency of three methods. The findings show： （1） the results of regression analysis and industry growth rate method are not consistent. The results of regression analysis and principal component analysis are not consistent. The results of industry growth rate method and principal component analysis are consistent. （2） three kinds of methods in determining life cycle of enterprise have their different advantages.